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以沂河流域为研究区,运用水文特征参数时间序列法,分析1951-2002年流域降水、径流、洪峰流量等水文要素的演化趋势,通过临沂站50年来天然径流过程的回归模拟及其与实测径流的比较,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明:近50年来沂河流域年径流量和各月径流量显著减少,并且对降水波动的响应迟缓,而单次暴雨径流对降水反应敏感;10年尺度的降水波动中,径流随着降水的多少而发生相对一致的变化趋势,降水变化在一定程度上控制着径流的演化;但是20世纪60年代中期以来,临沂站实测径流的平均值减少了149mm,占天然径流量年平均值的51.6%,气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为39.3%和60.7%。水利工程建设、土地利用变化、水资源开发利用等人类活动对径流产生更为深刻的影响。流域可持续发展要求在遵循水循环自然规律的基础上合理约束人类活动。
Taking Yi River basin as study area, the evolution trend of hydrological factors such as precipitation, runoff and flood peak flow in the basin during 1951-2002 was analyzed by using hydrological characteristic parameters time series method. The regression simulation of natural runoff in Linyi station over the past 50 years and its correlation with measured Comparison of runoff, quantitative analysis of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff. The results showed that annual runoff and monthly runoff of the Yihe River Basin decreased significantly in the past 50 years, and the response to precipitation fluctuation was slow, while single storm runoff was sensitive to precipitation. In the 10-year precipitation fluctuation, However, since the mid-1960s, the average measured runoff in Linyi Station decreased by 149mm, accounting for 51.6% of the annual average of natural runoff %, The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff reduction are 39.3% and 60.7% respectively. Human activities such as construction of water conservancy projects, changes in land use and development and utilization of water resources have a more profound impact on runoff. Sustainable development of the river basin requires that human activities should be reasonably restrained on the basis of following the natural laws of the water cycle.