论文部分内容阅读
含缺陷压力管系的概率安全评定是石油化工行业中一个新兴的重要课题 ,概率断裂力学的出现和发展提供了强有力的手段。针对含缺陷压力管系断裂失效分析模式 ,结合实际操作工况 ,考虑多种载荷因素及材料性能参数 ,提出了管系断裂失效风险分析方法。在此基础上 ,运用R6选择 1评定技术路线 ,考虑压力管道缺陷尺寸、承受载荷、材料断裂韧性及流变应力等参数的随机性及分布特征 ,对各随机变量进行模拟实际操作工况抽样 ,应用MonteCarlo数值计算方法确定含缺陷压力管系上每个独立缺陷引起的失效概率 ,进而计算出整个管系的失效风险概率。为石化企业诊断系统安全提供了一个技术手段。
Probabilistic safety assessment of defective pressure piping system is a new and important issue in the petrochemical industry. The emergence and development of probabilistic fracture mechanics provide a powerful method. Aiming at the fracture failure analysis mode of defective pressure pipelines, combined with actual operating conditions, considering various load factors and material performance parameters, a risk analysis method of pipe fracture failure is proposed. On this basis, using R6 to choose a technical route to evaluate, considering the randomness and distribution characteristics of the parameters such as defect size, bearing capacity, material fracture toughness and flow stress of the pressure pipeline, the actual operating conditions were sampled for each random variable, Monte Carlo numerical calculation method is used to determine the probability of failure caused by each independent defect on the pressure piping system with defects, and then the failure risk probability of the whole piping system is calculated. It provides a technical measure for the safety of petrochemical enterprise diagnosis system.