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目的探讨运用移动平均比率法配合最小二乘法预测医院门诊诊次。方法用季节预测法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与季节指数,用移动平均比率法配合最小二乘法建立预测模型。结果根据某院2003年~2006年的数据预测出2007年各月的门诊量。结论本方法简单科学,可为医院管理决策提供依据。
Objective To explore the prediction of hospital outpatient visits using the moving average ratio method and least squares method. Methods The trend value and seasonal index were calculated using the moving average ratio method in the seasonal forecast method, and the prediction model was established by using the moving average ratio method and the least squares method. Results According to the data of one hospital from 2003 to 2006, the outpatient amount in each month of 2007 was predicted. Conclusion This method is simple and scientific and can provide a basis for hospital management decision-making.