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基于实测资料验证AquaCrop作物模型,并应用AquaCrop作物模型初步估测气候变化下春小麦生产力。结果表明,地上生物量模拟值与实测值之间决定系数R2在0.957~0.997之间,地上生物量模拟效果良好;灌浆初期,籽粒产量模拟值与实测值吻合度较高。AquaCrop模型对水分的敏感度大于对温度的敏感度;春小麦的生产力随着大气CO2质量浓度的增加而增长。在东北春小麦区用AquaCrop模型模拟与预估春小麦生产力是可行的。
AquaCrop crop model was validated based on measured data and AquaCrop crop model was used to estimate the spring wheat productivity under climate change. The results showed that the coefficient of determination R2 was between 0.957 and 0.997, and the simulated aboveground biomass was good. During the initial filling stage, the simulated values of grain yield were in good agreement with the measured values. AquaCrop model is more sensitive to moisture than temperature, and productivity of spring wheat increases with the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is feasible to use AquaCrop model to simulate and forecast the spring wheat productivity in the northeast spring wheat area.