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季度宏观经济计量模型的模拟结果表明,今年GDP将增长13%,外贸新增逆差150亿美元(当年逆差+去年逆差),相当于去年GDP的5.5%,故今年全社会总供给将增长18%以上;相比之下,今年实物量全社会固定资产投资和社会商品零售额构成的全社会总有效需求仅增长10%左右。因此作者认为,相对于较快增长的总供给,当前有效社会需求不足是1993年我国国民经济发展格局的基本特征。并据此建议,近期宏观经济政策取向应是,在避免价格水平重新暴涨和保持经济速度适度回落的前提下,在结构调整的同时,适量扩大有效需求。
Quarterly macroeconometric models show that GDP growth will reach 13% this year, with a trade deficit of 15 billion U.S. dollars (deficit + deficit last year), equivalent to 5.5% of GDP last year. Therefore, the total social supply will grow by 18% In contrast, the total effective demand of the whole society, which is composed of the total amount of fixed assets investment in society and the retail sales of social goods, grew by only 10% this year. Therefore, the authors believe that the current lack of effective social demand is the basic feature of the pattern of national economic development in our country in 1993, compared with the relatively fast-growing total supply. Based on this, it is suggested that the recent macroeconomic policy should be oriented toward expanding the effective demand moderately while structural adjustment while avoiding the resurgence of price levels and keeping the economic pace modestly down.