论文部分内容阅读
目的评价两种季节时间序列模型对武汉市江汉区细菌性痢疾月发病率的预测效果,为选择适宜的预测方法提供科学参考依据。方法收集2005年1月至2013年12月武汉市江汉区菌痢月发病资料,分别运用季节指数趋势预测模型和SARIMA模型进行建模,选择较优模型对2014年1~6月菌痢月发病率资料进行预测和效果评价。结果两种模型预测值与实际值拟合趋势基本一致,但季节指数趋势模型拟合效果较好,预测2014年上半年疫情发展特点为1~3月呈缓慢上升趋势,4~6月呈快速上升趋势。结论季节指数趋势模型对江汉区菌痢月发病水平进行短期预测具有较高的预测精度。
Objective To evaluate the predictive effects of two seasonal time series models on the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan City, and to provide a scientific basis for selecting suitable prediction methods. Methods The clinical data of dysentery dysentery from January 2005 to December 2013 in Wuhan were collected. The seasonal index trend prediction model and SARIMA model were used to establish the model. The optimal model was selected to analyze the incidence of dysentery on January to June 2014 Rate data for prediction and evaluation of the effect. Results The predicted values of the two models were basically the same as the actual values, but the fitting effect of the seasonal index trend model was good. It was predicted that the epidemic characteristics in the first half of 2014 showed a slowly increasing trend from January to March, and the trend was rapid from April to June Upward trend. Conclusion The seasonal index trend model has a high prediction accuracy for short-term prediction of the incidence of dysentery in Jianghan district.