人民币升值的压力来自于中国的贸易顺差,本文利用马歇尔-勒纳条件分析人民币汇率变动与中国货物贸易进出口之间的关系,结果反映出我国货物贸易商品结构的现存问题。由于汇率波动幅度扩大的长期性,为稳定贸易收支,我国应致力于改善和提高商品结构、质量,加强企业对汇率变动的敏感度、提高应对风险的意识与能力。 The pressure of RMB appreciation comes from China’s trade surplus. This paper analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate changes and China’s import and export of goods by using the Marshall-Lerner condition. The results reflect the existing problems in the commodity structure of China’s trade of goods. Due to the long-term expansion of exchange rate volatility, in order to stabilize trade balance, China should commit itself to improving and enhancing the structure and quality of commodities, strengthening the sensitivity of enterprises to changes in exchange rates and raising the awareness and ability to deal with risks.