以平度市南部粮产区具体情况以及其地下水的开采利用状况为研究对象,采取郭庄万亩粮食示范区历年勘察统计数据资料,运用灰色理论的算法建立GM(1,1)模型,通过精度检验、残差分析等方法,用该模型对该地区的地下水动态变化趋势进行预测。利用这些数据来推求环境变量(预测指标以外的所有可能变量)对平度市南部粮产区地下水的变化影响,从而根据其变化规律,适当调整作物种植结构,以实现水资源的可持续开发利用。 Taking the situation of grain producing area in the south of Pingdu City and the exploitation and utilization status of groundwater as the research object, taking the historical survey data of Guozhuang Wanmu Food Demonstration Area as a case study and using the gray theory algorithm to establish the GM (1,1) model, Precision test, residual analysis and other methods, the model is used to predict the dynamic trend of groundwater in this area. These data are used to deduce the impact of environmental variables (all possible variables except predictive indicators) on the groundwater changes in the grain-producing areas in the southern part of Pingdu City so that crop cultivation structure can be properly adjusted according to the changing rules so as to realize the sustainable development and utilization of water resources .