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本文通过建立VAR模型,对危机冲击下中国经济增长中的贸易冲击效应进行计量分析,结果表明,进出口贸易波动在一定程度上能够引发中国经济增长波动,但这种影响十分有限,解释力不足10%。本文认为,将危机冲击下贸易出现的暂时性“崩溃”视为中国外向型经济的脆弱性,将贸易波动可能引发经济波动的风险过分夸大,并由此主张转变中国外向型发展模式为内需主导型,是片面的、错误的。危机后继续大力发展外向型经济,促进中国经济乃至区域协调发展,应是我们坚持的基本战略取向。
This paper establishes a VAR model to measure the impact of the trade shocks under the impact of the crisis in China’s economic growth. The results show that the fluctuation of import and export trade to a certain extent can lead to fluctuations in China’s economic growth, but the impact is very limited and the explanatory power is insufficient 10%. This paper argues that considering the temporary “collapse” of trade under the impact of crises as the vulnerability of China’s export-oriented economy and overblown the risk that the volatility of trade may trigger economic fluctuations, and thus advocating the transformation of China’s export-oriented development model to The dominant domestic demand is one-sided and wrong. After the crisis, vigorously develop the export-oriented economy and promote the coordinated development of China’s economy and even the region should be our basic strategic orientation.