中国改革的任务是要实现经济社会政治结构的全面转型。影响转型成本最重要的因素是制度变革路径的选择和风险控制。改革中的四个底线和三个风险对于改革的后果,是否有不能或暂时不能突破的底线?自然是有的。改革不夭折、国家不分裂、社会不对抗、政权可持续,应该是改革主导者愿意接受 The task of China's reform is to realize the all-round restructuring of the economic, social and political structures. The most important factor that affects the transformation cost is the choice of the path of institutional change and risk control. There are some natural reasons for the four bottom lines and the three risks in the reform of the bottom line for the consequences of the reform that can not or can not be temporarily broken. The reform is not aborted, the state is not divided, the society is not antagonistic, and the regime is sustainable. It is the leader of the reform that is willing to accept