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城镇居民的人均可支配收入情况直接反映了城镇居民的生活水平高低,而影响人均可支配收入的因素较多,用回归模型难以预测其走势。本文建立了人均可支配收入的GM(1,1)预测模型x^(1)(k)=(x(0)(1)-b/a)e-a(k-1)+b/a,并对该模型的可用性进行了验证;利用该模型对重庆市2013—2015年的城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入进行了预测,分别为2.741 6、3.149 9和3.619万元。结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入情况。
The per capita disposable income of urban residents directly reflects the living standards of urban residents, but there are many factors that affect the per capita disposable income. It is difficult to predict the trend with the regression model. In this paper, the GM (1,1) forecasting model x ^ (1) (k) = (x (0) (1) -b / a) ea (k-1) + b / a for per capita disposable income The model is used to verify the availability of the model. The model is used to predict the per capita disposable income of urban households in Chongqing in 2013-2015 at 2.741 6, 3.1449 and 3.619 million respectively. The results show that the model can predict the per capita disposable income of urban households well.