友好人士大多去世中日正式在合作与竞争的边缘保持着平衡。2002年9月,两国庆祝双边关系正常化30周年。两国于1978年签订了《和平友好条约》。如果以目前的趋势持续下去,和平会保持,但是友好也许就站不住了。随着双方经历政治、社会、经济和安全战略改革,日中关系会继续受到破坏。这四个方面都包含着一些积极的成分,但是这四个方面的主要趋势都足以引起担心。日本政界人士和民意中已经出现了比在中国更加明显的警报信号,这种转变表明朝着恶化方向变化的可能性更大。隐藏在东京态度变化背后的一个重要因素是那些与中国建立了友好关系的人已经去世。关系正常化时期的首相田中角荣与中国领导人建立了一个非正式接触网络,他在离任后还利用这个网络继续在幕后处理两国关系。其继任者竹下登后来继承了与中国的友好关系并且在离职后直到去世之前还保持一定的影响力。在执政党中促进日中友好关系的大多数高级人士已经去世,只剩下少数口头上鼓吹做出 Most of the friendly people died Most of China and Japan have maintained their balance on the brink of cooperation and competition. In September 2002, the two countries celebrated the 30th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral relations. The two countries signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 1978. If the current trend continues, peace will be maintained, but friendship may not stand still. As the two sides undergo strategic reforms in political, social, economic and security fields, Sino-Japanese relations will continue to be destroyed. All four of these aspects contain some positive elements, but the four major trends in all four are enough to cause concern. Japan’s politicians and public opinion have seen more obvious warning signs than in China, indicating that the shift toward worsening is more likely. An important factor hidden behind changes in Tokyo’s attitude is that those who have established friendly relations with China have died. Prime Minister Tanaka Koizumi of the period of normalization established an informal contact network with the Chinese leaders. After leaving office, he also continued to use the network to handle the bilateral relations behind the scenes. His successor, Takeshita, later inherited the friendly relations with China and remained influential until after his departure from office. Most senior members of the ruling party that promote Japan-China friendly relations have passed away with only a few verbal advocates