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向区外转移一定数量的过载人口是三峡生态屏障区土地生态功能建设的前提。基于农户访谈与问卷调查,对三峡库区典型生态屏障区内的涪陵、奉节、秭归、夷陵4区县的农户转移意愿进行了抽样调查,并采用Logistic回归模型对影响农户转移意愿的因素进行了分析。结果显示:61.3%的被调查户愿意转移,影响农户转移意愿的主要因素为户主文化水平、家庭非农收入比重、人均耕地面积、村社距集镇距离和村社环境,户主的文化水平越高、家庭非农收入比重越大、人均耕地面积越多,所处村社距集镇的距离越远、环境越差,则农户向外转移的意愿就越强烈。另外,地区因素对农户的转移意愿也存在一定影响,4个样本区县中农户转移意愿强度从大到小依次排列为秭归、涪陵、夷陵和奉节,其愿意转移的发生比率(Odds Ratio)为5.047∶1.637∶1.166∶1。为了激励屏障区农户实行自愿转移,促进三峡后续工作规划的顺利实施,建议政府根据影响因素分析结果选择目标转移人群,并制定完善的人口转移政策以加强农户对转移后的经济收入、生产生活环境改善的预期,从而增强转移意愿。
The transfer of a certain number of overloaded population to the outside area is the prerequisite for the ecological function of the land in the Three Gorges ecological barrier area. Based on the interviews and questionnaires of farmers, we conducted a sample survey of the farmers ’willingness to transfer in Fuling, Fengjie, Zigui and Yiling counties in a typical ecological barrier area in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the factors influencing farmers’ willingness to shift Analysis. The results showed that 61.3% of the respondents were willing to transfer, and the main factors affecting their willingness to transfer were the level of head of household, the proportion of non-agricultural household income, the per capita cultivated land area, the distance between village and community and the village community, and the higher the cultural level , The greater the proportion of non-agricultural household income, the more cultivated land per capita, the greater the distance between the village community and the market town, and the worse the environment, the stronger the will of the rural households to shift outward. In addition, the regional factors also have an impact on the willingness of farmers to transfer. The intensity of willingness to transfer among middle-class farmers in four sample counties is ranked as Zigui, Fuling, Yiling and Fengjie in descending order of preference, and the ratio of willingness to transfer (Odds Ratio) 5.047: 1.637: 1.16: 1. In order to encourage voluntary transfer of farmers in the barrier area and promote the smooth implementation of the follow-up work plan of the Three Gorges, the government is suggested to select the target transfer population based on the analysis of the influencing factors and formulate a sound population transfer policy so as to enhance the household incomes after the transfer of economic income, production and living environment Improve expectations, thus enhancing the willingness to transfer.