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随着中国经济对能源需求的增长以及化石能源所固有的环境污染、温室效应问题,我国近年来开展了一家列以生物柴油为目标的科研与生产。目前其成本计算大多都是基于现有的石化柴油与生物柴油的成本的简单比较,没有考虑到其他的成本因素,如:石油价格上涨可能带来以石油产品为原料的生物柴油原料的成本上升(成本推动效应);石油价格上涨必然带来农产品价格的上升或供应的减少,由于农产品之间存在资源或产品的竞争性,这些农产品价格的上升会从需求方面拉动生物柴油的原料价格上升(需求拉动效应);由于受到农业规模的限制,农业劳动力的转移或结构性限制,油菜籽的供给等其他成本因素也存在一些不确定性;以木本油料植物为原料的生物柴油,存在原料收集、储运成本高等问题。这些因素对生物柴油开发的效应只有在模型的基础上,通过系统的均衡分析才能加以回答。
With the growth of China’s economy in energy demand and the environmental pollution and greenhouse effect inherent in fossil fuels, China has conducted a series of scientific research and production targeting biodiesel in recent years. At present, most of its cost calculations are based on a simple comparison of the existing costs of petrodiesel with biodiesel, without taking into account other cost factors such as the rising cost of petroleum which may lead to an increase in the cost of raw materials for biodiesel using petroleum products as raw materials (Cost-push effect); rising oil prices will inevitably bring about increases in the prices of agricultural products or decreases in supply, and rising prices of these agricultural products will drive the price of raw materials for biodiesel from the demand side due to the existence of resources or product competitiveness between agricultural products Demand-pull effect); there are some uncertainties about other cost factors such as the shift of agricultural labor force or structural constraints, supply of rapeseed, etc., due to the constraints of agricultural scale; biodiesel with woody oil plants as raw material , Storage and transportation costs and other issues. The effects of these factors on the development of biodiesel can only be answered through systematic equilibrium analysis based on the model.