论文部分内容阅读
通过分析冀北五市1990—2007年这一长时期的全社会用电量增长率发现,它与中国经济周期的波动存在着一定相关关系,结合中国较长时期的经济周期变化特征的分析以及国内权威经济周期研究专家对2008年及未来几年经济形势的认识,并考虑对冀北五市开展的电力市场调研结论和该地区电力需求与经济周期之间的关系,对“十一五”后期以及“十二五”的电力需求进行了中长期预测,并进行了情景分析。
By analyzing the long-term growth rate of the whole society in 1990-2007 in five northern Hebei cities, it is found that it has some correlation with the fluctuation of China’s economic cycle. Combined with the analysis of the long-period economic cyclical changes in China and The authoritative economic cycle of domestic experts on the understanding of the economic situation in 2008 and the next few years, and consider the five cities in northern Hebei to carry out electricity market research conclusions and the relationship between the region’s electricity demand and the economic cycle, the “Eleventh Five-year Mid-term and long-term forecasts of electricity demand in the later part of the ”12th Five-Year Plan" period and the scenario analysis.