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在进行风电项目的投资决策时,不仅要考虑初始投资的成本,更要考虑项目运营阶段对总成本造成影响的风险,否则将造成投资决策困难。因此引入蒙特卡洛模拟法,结合Crystal Ball软件对引起总成本较大变化的各种风险因素进行模拟分析,构建各种风险因素间的关系模型,最终通过单位电度成本进行项目方案优选。
When making investment decisions in a wind power project, not only the initial investment cost but also the risk of affecting the total cost during the operation phase of the project should be taken into account. Otherwise, the investment decision will be difficult. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced, and Crystal Ball software is used to simulate the various risk factors that cause great changes in the total cost. The relationship model between various risk factors is constructed, and finally the project plan is optimized through the unit electricity cost.