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为解决深圳市龙华新区水资源供需矛盾,运用系统动力学模型(SD模型),结合该区“来-蓄-用-排”的水资源结构链,将人口、经济、产业发展与水资源供需相结合,建立水资源SD模型,模拟了2010~2030年水资源供需比的变化.结果显示,未来在限定境外调水总量的前提下龙华新区水资源匮乏,供需矛盾突出.通过参数敏感性分析识别出6个对水资源供需比影响较大的参数,分别是污水处理回用率、雨水利用率、人均生活用水定额、万元工业产值用水量、第二产业增长率、第三产业增长率.将以上参数作为主要调控变量,依据龙华新区发展规划及国家发展战略设计了情景优化方案,最终给出短期规划与长期规划综合优化方案.短期规划到2020年水资源供需比可由0.93提高到1.05,长期规划到2030年水资源供需比可由0.84提高到1.04.未来龙华新区需进一步加快产业结构调整,建设节水型城市,提高非常规水资源利用率,才能有效解决水资源供需矛盾,保持经济稳增与水资源可持续发展的协调统一.
In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Longhua New Area of Shenzhen City, this paper uses the system dynamics model (SD model) and the water resource structure chain in this area to integrate population, economy and industrial development with water The paper combined the supply and demand of resources and established SD model of water resources to simulate the change of water supply and demand ratio from 2010 to 2030. The results show that there is a shortage of water resources in Longhua New District in the future and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.Through the parameter Sensitivity analysis identifies six parameters that have a greater impact on the water supply-demand ratio, namely, wastewater reuse rate, rainwater utilization rate, water consumption quota per capita, water consumption per 10,000 yuan industrial output value, growth rate of secondary industry, and tertiary Industrial growth rate.With the above parameters as the main control variables, according to the Longhua New Area Development Planning and National Development Strategy design scenario optimization program, and ultimately give short-term planning and long-term planning integrated optimization program. Short-term planning water supply and demand by 2020 can be 0.93 To 1.05 and the ratio of water supply to supply can be raised from 0.84 to 1.04 in the long-term planning by 2030. In the future, Longhua New Area needs to further accelerate the industrial restructuring and build a water-saving city , To improve the utilization rate of unconventional water resources can we effectively solve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and maintain the harmony between economic growth and sustainable development of water resources.