针对我国东部各油田进入特高含水期采油阶段所面临的稳产难题，提出了建立预测模型的方法，即综合各种途径取得的信息，主要依靠沉积学加上地质统计学方法，对井间参数进行一定精度的、细致的预测估值。随机建模的具体方法目前发展较快的是地质统计学方法，这种方法的思路是寻求比较符合地质规律的地质统计学模型和方法，表征各种沉积类型的储层参数的变化规律，用这种已知的规律对井间未知的地区参数的空间分布作出预测估值。以胜坨油田二区沙二段７－８砂组为例，利用模拟退火方法和顺序指示模拟方法分别建立了砂体格架和沉积微相平面展布等预测模型，并分析了模型与剩余油分布的关系，为油田的进一步挖潜作出了有意义的探讨 Aiming at the problem of stable production in oilfields entering the extra-high water cut stage in eastern China, a method of establishing prediction models is put forward, that is, synthesizing the information obtained from various approaches, mainly relying on sedimentology and geostatistics methods, To a certain precision, meticulous forecast valuation. At present, the specific method of stochastic modeling is the method of geostatistics. The idea of ​​this method is to seek geostatistical models and methods that are more in line with the geological laws and characterize the variation of reservoir parameters of various sedimentary types. This known law makes a predictive valuation of the spatial distribution of unknown parameters between wells. Taking sand formation of Member 7-8 of Shahejie Formation in the second section of Shengtuo Oilfield as an example, the prediction models of sand body framework and sedimentary microfacies plane distribution are established respectively by simulated annealing method and sequential indication simulation method. The model and remaining oil Distribution of the relationship between the oil field for further tapping make a meaningful discussion