安全事故的非线性自组织特征初探

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通过对国内各省、市、自治区各个行业在2000年和2001年1~7月安全事故的统计分析后发现,国内各省、市、自治区和各个行业安全事故的发生较好地遵循了幂律规则,在无标度区域内,安全事故规模大于x人的安全事故数目Y满足关系式lgY=a-bx。该式适用于一定的时间和空间范围内的安全系统,所以,安全系统具有自组织特征。同时,对预测安全事故的发生提供了可能。 Through the statistical analysis of all kinds of accidents in various provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China in 2000 and from January to July in 2001, it was found that the occurrence of accidents in various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions and various industries in China followed the power law rules well, In the scale-free region, the number of safety accidents with a safety accident size greater than x people satisfies the relation lgY = a-bx. The formula applies to a certain time and space within the security system, so the security system with self-organizing features. At the same time, it is possible to predict the occurrence of safety accidents.
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