北极海冰消融使西北航道具备较大发展空间,其大规模使用将对中国和全球经济产生重要影响,各经济体受益程度构成了其应对战略的经济基础。针对当前西北航道经济影响评估研究偏重技术经济分析而弱于宏观经济分析的现状,作者在改进GTAP模型基础上开发了全球多区域可计算一般均衡模拟系统,对西北航道的潜在经济影响开展了模拟分析。模拟结果显示,西北航道的使用有利于全球经济增长,但不同国家或地区受益程度出现分异,包括中国在内的东亚地区、北美、欧盟等成为较大受益方,尤其是东亚国家受益最为明显。从较长时期来看,西北航道的价值在于对各经济体的连通而非对“北极市场”的连通。对此,中国需要在气候变化大背景下、从战略高度重新认识西北航道的价值,加强与东亚、欧盟等国家或地区的合作,推进西北航道的和平、可持续利用。 Arctic sea ice ablation makes the northwest channel have more room for development, its large-scale use will have a significant impact on China and the global economy, the degree of benefit of each economy constitutes the economic basis of its response strategy. Aiming at the current situation that the economic impact assessment of the Northwest Passageway is more technical and economic than the macroeconomic analysis, the author developed a global multi-region calculable general equilibrium simulation system based on the improved GTAP model and simulated the potential economic impact of the Northwest Passage analysis. The simulation results show that the use of the Northwest Passageway is beneficial to global economic growth, but the benefits of different countries or regions are different. East Asia including China, North America, the European Union and other countries have become the major beneficiaries. In particular, East Asian countries have benefited most significantly . In the longer term, the value of the Northwest Passage lies in the connectivity of all economies rather than the “North Pole Market.” To this end, China needs to re-understand the value of the Northwest Passage from a strategic height under the background of climate change, strengthen its cooperation with countries such as East Asia and the European Union, and promote the peaceful and sustainable use of the Northwest Passage.