房价,影响着金融稳定和实体经济的发展。作者分析中国房地产市场价格影响因素,以及国际经验对比,进而提出2017年房价走势预测以及调控政策建言。作者认为,任何偏离收入的上涨都是泡沫的累积,只要出现连续加息或者其他系统性风险,将刺破泡沫。政府既要从根本上思考三个棘手的问题,也要维持短期内的一线城市房价稳定。政府要灵活运用政策工具包,在必要的货币政策、土地政策和限购政策中做出抉择和判断。 Housing prices, affecting the financial stability and real economy. The author analyzes the influencing factors of China’s real estate market prices and international experience, and then puts forward the prediction of 2017 housing price trends and the regulation and control policies. The author believes that any deviation from rising incomes is a buildup of bubbles that will pierce the bubble whenever there are successive rate hikes or other systemic risks. The government should not only think about the three thorny issues fundamentally, but also maintain the stability of housing prices in first-tier cities in the near term. The government should make flexible use of policy kits and make choices and judgments in the necessary monetary, land and purchase restrictions.