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为解决海底油气管道由于外表面破损引起腐蚀加快,进而导致管道腐蚀失效的问题,基于传统灰色模型,建立尾段残差修正GM(1,1)模型,用以预测管道剩余寿命。首先,检验管道腐蚀深度数据的光滑性和准指数规律性,建立灰色微分方程;然后利用最小二乘法求出方程参数值,用传统灰色模型预测腐蚀深度,并对残差进行修正,从而得到一个完整的用于海底管道腐蚀趋势预测的尾段残差修正GM(1,1)模型,并对预测结果进行后验差检验。最后以某一海底管道试验段为例,预测管道剩余寿命。结果表明,传统管道腐蚀深度预测灰色模型预测相对误差为36.7%,尾段残差修正GM(1,1)模型预测的相对误差为3.79%,后者预测精度等级更高。
In order to solve the problem of pipeline corrosion failure due to the accelerated corrosion caused by the damage on the outer surface of oil and gas pipelines, a GM (1,1) model based on the traditional gray model was established to predict the residual life of the pipeline. First of all, the smoothness and quasi-exponential regularity of pipeline corrosion depth data are checked and the gray differential equation is established. Then, the equation parameters are calculated by the least square method, the corrosion depth is predicted by the traditional gray model, and the residual is corrected, so as to obtain a A complete modified GM (1,1) model for the tail segment corrosion prediction of subsea pipelines is proposed, and the prediction results are tested with the posterior difference test. Finally, take a submarine pipeline test section as an example to predict the remaining life of the pipeline. The results show that the relative error of gray model prediction of traditional pipeline corrosion prediction is 36.7%, the relative error of prediction of tail GM (1,1) model is 3.79%, and the prediction accuracy of the latter is higher.