方形黄鼠蚤松江亚种(Citellophilus tesquorum sungaris以下简称黄鼠蚤)是我国松辽平原黄鼠鼠疫自然疫源地的主要传播媒介。我们依据阿鲁科尔沁旗绍根鼠疫定点监测站1982～1990年鼠密度、蚤指数及天山气象站的气象等资料,用逐步回归分析给出了预测黄鼠巢蚤指数的数学模型。 选用的20个因子依次为:上年7月份黄鼠X_1、上年7月份至当年5月份下降密度X_2、1～3月份月平均气温X_3～X_5、3月 Citellophilus tesquorum sungaris (hereinafter referred to as the yellow rat fleas) is the main transmission medium of the natural foci of the plague in the Songliao Plain in China. Based on the data of rat density, flea index and meteorological data of Tianshan weather station during the period from 1982 to 1990 at the Sharu root plague station in Aruqerqin Banner, a mathematical model for predicting the flea index was established by stepwise regression analysis. The selected 20 factors are as follows: July last year, yellow rat X_1, from July last year to May the year decline in density X_2, January to March the monthly mean temperature X_3 ~ X_5, March