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为了应对全球性能源危机和环境污染,各国争相开发利用可再生能源,目前风能是最具大规模商业化开发利用潜力的可再生能源之一.在利用风能进行发电时,开发一个针对风速和气温的实时预测系统对于风电场电力系统的调度和安全稳定运行具有重要意义.本文介绍了基于清华大学建筑设计院楼顶的单台聚风型风力机的一个实时预测系统,此预测系统使用时间序列法中的ARMA(Auto Regression Moving Average)模型对风速和气温进行预测,其可靠性和精确度通过比较预测结果与超声波风速仪的测量数据得到验证.
In order to cope with the global energy crisis and environmental pollution, various countries compete for the development and utilization of renewable energy, and at present wind energy is one of the most renewable energies for commercialization and utilization of large-scale commercialization.When using wind energy for power generation, The temperature real-time prediction system is of great significance for the scheduling and safe and stable operation of the wind farm power system.This paper presents a real-time prediction system based on the single wind turbine on the roof of Tsinghua University’s Architectural Design Institute, which uses the time The Auto Regression Moving Average (ARMA) model in the sequential method predicts wind speed and air temperature, and its reliability and accuracy are verified by comparing the predictions with the ultrasonic anemometer measurements.