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近年来,随着中国城市化进程不断加快,各地普遍出现了以低价出让农业用地,盲目投资房地产及城市基础设施,大规模兴建新城区为主要特征的城市蔓延现象。造成这种城市建成区低密度无序扩张的原因,除了不规范的城市用地转化机制外,很大程度上是源于对城市化与经济发展关系的不当认识。以全国261个地级市为例,基于1990~2010年城市社会经济发展数据,采用多元回归模型客观分析了中国城市土地蔓延与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,在控制住城市固定资产投资、外商投资(FDI)、房地产泡沫效应等因素后,城市现有建成区面积及其扩展幅度与其人均国民生产总值并没有显著相关关系。也就是说,单纯追求城市建成区规模扩张并不能直接促进城市经济发展。
In recent years, with the accelerating process of urbanization in China, widespread urban sprawl with low-cost agricultural land transfer, blind investment in real estate and urban infrastructures, and large-scale construction of new metropolises has emerged in various places. The reasons for the low-density and disorderly expansion of the built-up areas in this city are, apart from the non-standard urban land conversion mechanism, largely due to improper understanding of the relationship between urbanization and economic development. Taking the 261 prefecture-level cities in China as an example, based on the data of urban social and economic development from 1990 to 2010, the relationship between the spread of urban land in China and economic growth was objectively analyzed by using the multiple regression model. The results show that there is no significant correlation between the area of existing built-up areas and the extent of expansion in urban areas per capita GNP after controlling for urban fixed assets investment, foreign investment (FDI) and real estate bubble effect. In other words, simply pursuing the expansion of urban built-up area does not directly promote urban economic development.