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对海南省社会消费品零售总额进行预测,对于了解海南省社会消费品零售总额的发展态势,为有关部门作出决策提供科学的依据,具有重大的现实经济意义.选取1999年到2014年的海南省社会消费品零售总额的数据来建立ARIMA(1,3,2)模型,2012年到2014年的实际值与预测值的相对误差5%以内,拟合效果良好,说明采用ARIMA模型预测海南省社会消费品零售总额是可行的,预测数据可靠.最后对海南省2015-2018年的社会消费品零售总额进行预测.
Forecasting the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan Province is of great realistic and economic significance for understanding the development trend of total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan Province and providing a scientific basis for the relevant departments to make decisions.Selecting the social consumer goods in Hainan Province from 1999 to 2014, Retail total data to establish the ARIMA (1,3,2) model, the relative error of the actual value and the forecast value within 5% from 2012 to 2014, the fitting effect is good, indicating that using the ARIMA model to predict the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Hainan Province Is feasible and the forecast data is reliable.Finally, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2018 are predicted.