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基于1999~2008年的数据,利用协整分析和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法,选择中国工商银行江西省分行公司贷款余额来表示信贷退出的指标,对银行信贷退出对产业优化升级的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:信贷退出对产业结构调整具有十分重要的作用,推动了产业结构的优化升级,实施信贷退出后信贷结构发展的方向与产业结构升级的方向是一致的,银行信贷退出对产业结构优化升级具有长期稳定的线性关系,信贷退出是产业结构优化率提高的格兰杰成因。但是,我们也不能将产业结构调整的任务都系于银行信贷退出机制的完善和信贷结构的调整上。
Based on the data from 1999 to 2008, using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, we choose the bank loan balance of ICBC Jiangxi Branch to represent the indicators of credit withdrawal, and the impact of bank credit withdrawal on industrial optimization and upgrading conduct the empirical research. The result shows that the withdrawal of credit plays an important role in the adjustment of industrial structure, which promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The direction of the development of credit structure after the withdrawal of credit is consistent with the direction of upgrading of industrial structure. With the withdrawal of bank credit, the industrial structure is optimized and upgraded With long-term and stable linear relationship, credit withdrawal is the Granger cause of the optimization of industrial structure. However, we can not all take the task of adjusting the industrial structure to the improvement of the bank credit withdrawal mechanism and the adjustment of the credit structure.