一、时间序列分析是经济预测的常用方法 利用时间序列分析的方法,对经济活动进行预测,在我国的预测方法中是应用得比较早,也是比较普遍的方法之一。在统计部门,由于实行定期连续地对社会经济现象进行调查统计的制度,统计基础资料比较系统、完整,所以利用时间序列分析方法进行经济预测,比起其它部门,具有很大优势。什么叫时间序列呢?所谓时间序列就是将表明某种现象的统计指标的统计数字,按照发生时间的先后顺序排列起来所形成的数列。它能反映某种现象发展变化的动态,所以也叫作动态数列。一组时间序列中的各项数字所代表的时间长短、调查统计的总体范围、计算方法和计量单位、指标所反映的质的内容,前后应该一致,即人们常说的统计口径是可比的,这样的时间序列才能用于经济分析和预测。 利用时间序列对经济进行预测,就是利用同一 First, the time series analysis is a common method of economic forecasting Time series analysis method to forecast economic activity in China’s forecasting method is applied earlier, is also one of the more common method. In the statistics department, due to the regular and continuous system of investigation and statistics on social and economic phenomena, the statistical basic information is relatively systematic and complete. Therefore, economic forecasting using time series analysis method has great advantages over other departments. What is a time series? The so-called time series is to show the statistical indicators of a phenomenon statistics, arranged in accordance with the order of occurrence of the sequence formed. It can reflect the development of a phenomenon of dynamic developments, it is also called dynamic series. The length of time represented by the figures in a set of time series, the overall scope of the survey statistics, the calculation methods and units of measurement, and the quality of the indicators reflected in the indicators should be consistent before and after, that is, people often say that the statistical size is comparable, Such a time series can be used for economic analysis and forecasting. The use of time series to predict the economy is to use the same