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产能过剩行业结构调整是供给侧改革的重要任务之一,但由于我国不公布产能利用率数据,使得行业产能过剩的量化缺乏赖以支持的指标体系,同时由于高频度数据的缺失,产能过剩行业投资效率的实证研究也缺乏数据基础。本文利用国家统计局公布的工业行业效益指标,构建了测度产能过剩和投资效率的两个指标,实证分析结果表明,本文构建的产能过剩指标与宏观经济波动的关系符合理论预期,行业产能过剩和投资效率的关系与行业特征相一致,同时该指标可以获得季度频率的数据,有效解决了实证分析中的数据缺失问题。同时,对工业企业主要行业的研究表明,政府的干预和自然垄断特征明显的行业对市场需求变化的敏感度下降,产能过剩和投资效率之间的关系弱化,产业政策的有效性受到影响。
Overcapacity industry structural adjustment is one of the important tasks of supply-side reform. However, due to the fact that China does not release capacity utilization data, there is a lack of an index system to support the quantification of overcapacity in the industry. Due to the lack of high-frequency data and overcapacity, Empirical studies of industry investment efficiency also lack a data base. In this paper, we use the indicators of industrial efficiency released by National Bureau of Statistics to construct two indicators to measure overcapacity and investment efficiency. The empirical analysis shows that the relationship between the overcapacity indicator and the macroeconomic volatility is in line with the theoretical expectation, overcapacity in industry and The relationship between investment efficiency and industry characteristics are consistent. At the same time, this index can obtain quarterly frequency data and effectively solve the problem of data missing in the empirical analysis. At the same time, the research on the major industries of industrial enterprises shows that the sensitivity of government intervention and natural monopoly characteristics to changes in market demand is declining, the relationship between overcapacity and investment efficiency is weakened, and the effectiveness of industrial policies is affected.