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A HEARTY CHAT: Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, listens to a report on the research and development of a new type of aircraft at the Zhuhai base of China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Co. Ltd. He paid his first inspection tour as the new Party leader to south China’s Guangdong Province on December 7-11
What kind of economic policies will China adopt in 2013? Will any significant economic reforms be realized? These are among the questions on the minds of Chinawatchers following the country’s once-ina-decade leadership transition. The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held in Beijing on December 15-16 provided the answers: China will further expand reform and opening up and continue its macroeconomic policies, but in a prudent manner described as “active and steady.”
The CEWC is held at the end of each year to discuss issues in the domestic and international economies and map out plans for the following year. The meeting this year attracted more attention than usual because of the presence of the country’s new top leaders and a rebound in economic growth.
The CEWC concluded that the global economic situation would continue to be turbulent. The global economy is expected to maintain low growth, various forms of protectionism will resume and the pressure of potential inflation and asset bubbles will expand. The global economy has entered a period of profound transition from a period of fast growth in the pre-crisis years.
Expanding domestic demand, improving innovation and continuing the transformation of the country’s economic growth pattern will present new opportunities for China’s economy.
Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the State Council’s Development Research Center, said the new leaders are very confident about economic development in 2013 and believe the Chinese economy is likely to maintain steady growth.
Breakthroughs for reform
“Reform” was the main buzz word at this year’s CEWC. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), said at the conference that China should maintain a market economy and said that further reform needs “greater political courage and wisdom.”
Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that reforms are a major plus for China. Reforms, he said, would not only bring in fresh ideas but would ensure that vested interests would not dominate the economy. “This shows the resolution of the Central Committee of the Party,” said Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications. “The terms used throughout the conference, such as‘overall scheme,’ ‘roadmap’ and ‘timetable’for the reform, are inspiring and indicate that future reforms will not be confined to small matters, but are focused on major issues.”
The Chinese economy is facing immense difficulties in pursuing its economic reforms and readjusting its growth structure, Lian said. Reforms can only be implemented if there are changes to the country’s wealth distribution and financial system, if monopolies are broken up and if the household registration system, or hukou, is overhauled.
Such grand changes must come from the top, and leaders have already signaled their openness to expand reforms.
Upon his election as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Xi paid his first inspection tour to south China’s Guangdong Province, the bellwether of China’s reform and opening up over three decades ago. From December 7-11, he visited cities of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shunde and Guangzhou, where he dropped in on families, held seminars and deliberated upon a new round of economic reform needed for today’s China.
In Shenzhen, Xi also laid a basket of flowers at the statue of Deng Xiaoping, who ushered in a new wave of economic reforms and opening up that transformed China into an economic powerhouse.
Wang Yukai, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Governance, thought Xi’s tour in south China could also signal a new wave of reform as significant as that of Deng’s in 1992.
“Xi’s tour illustrates to the world that the country’s new leaders will follow down a path of reform and opening up initially put forward by Deng,” Wang said. Without Deng’s reforms, he added, China would not be where it is today.
Chen Yao, a researcher with the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), said previous reforms were analogous to “crossing the river by touching the stones.” This time around, Chen said, the CPC Central Committee is stressing foresighted reform planning.
A roadmap and timetable for a new round of reforms are expected to be released in March next year during the session of the National People’s Congress.
Steady advancement
The CEWC stressed the need to “actively and steadily” press ahead. Zhang said that the Chinese economy is experiencing two significant changes: a move from high-speed growth to stable growth; and from an expansion of scale to development based on quality and efficiency, adding that the government is taking an “active and steady” approach to ensure the changes continue.
“Steady” refers to stabilizing economic growth and price levels, while “active” refers to pushing forward economic restructuring and the pursuit of high-quality economic growth, said Zhang.
Since the fourth quarter of 2010, economic growth was in steady decline for seven consecutive quarters. Although growth appears to be rebounding, Zhang said the foundation for stronger growth remains weak.
The biggest problem in the Chinese economy is not the speed of growth but its quality and efficiency. If the problem of quality and efficiency cannot be fundamentally solved, the Chinese economy will be in a state of instability, says Yao Jingyuan, a researcher with the Counselors’ Office of the State Council, in an interview with Xinhua News Agency.
To ensure stable economic growth, the CEWC decided to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in 2013 to make counter-cyclical regulations and advance economic restructuring.
The policies will carry on from 2012 but with new conditions. Tax reform and structural tax reductions will be included in the country’s fiscal policy. Regarding monetary policy, the government will now focus on controlling the rate at which it prints money.
Liu Shangxi, Deputy Director of the Fiscal Science Research Center at the Ministry of Finance, said that although uncertainties in the global economy could hinder China’s growth, any impact wouldn’t be so great as in 2008-09. Therefore, in terms of fiscal policy, there is no need for China to formulate such expansionary measures.
A structural tax reduction will become a major component of China’s fiscal policy in 2013, said Liu. Currently, China is carrying out an experiment transforming the business tax to a valueadded tax, which could have a marked effect on reducing the tax burdens on companies. This is a significant step forward in improving the country’s tax system, said Liu. Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Institute of Economics at the CASS, predicted that in 2013 China will expand its financing scale and maintain its credit growth. Since 2011, the Chinese Government lowered the rate at which it issues its currency from 16 percent in 2010 to 14 percent in order to control inflation. In 2012, China’s growth of consumer price index was much lower than in the previous year, reaching 1.9 percent in October, the lowest in the past decade. Yuan said that as long as inflation remains under control, the government may raise its rate of currency issuance back to 16 percent in 2013. “This is a reasonable level,” he said. The Central Government is likely to adopt measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, Yuan added, but the key point of a prudent monetary policy is to control the speed of currency growth and enhance the flexibility of monetary policy. Since the United States, the EU and Japan are experiencing slow growth, China’s foreign trade has been encumbered. When fixed assets investments start to grow rapidly, the Chinese Government has pushed domestic demand as the major stimulus for economic growth.
The CEWC emphasized expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption so as to stimulate economic growth.
This conference also emphasized urbanization as a means to stimulate consumption growth. The country will gradually advance urbanization while ensuring that a population shift from rural to urban is done in an orderly fashion.
In 2011, China’s urban population accounted for 51.27 of the total. According to a report released by the CASS, China’s urbanization rate will surpass 60 percent by 2020. Every percentage point of urbanization growth equates to roughly 10 million rural residents moving from the countryside to the city and involves trillions of yuan in investment to stimulate domestic demand and increase consumption.
“By pressing urbanization ahead, the country can drive up both investment and consumption. Urbanization is key in promoting sustainable and steady economic growth in China,” Lian said.
Major Tasks for 2013
Improving macro-control and promoting sustainable and sound economic development
Ensuring a steady supply of farm produce
Accelerating the adjustment of the country’s industrial structure and improving its overall industrial quality
Pressing urbanization forward and focusing on improving its quality
Strengthening the social security system and improving people’s livelihood
Comprehensively deepening economic reforms and expanding opening up
(Source: Statement of the Central Economic Work Conference)
What kind of economic policies will China adopt in 2013? Will any significant economic reforms be realized? These are among the questions on the minds of Chinawatchers following the country’s once-ina-decade leadership transition. The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held in Beijing on December 15-16 provided the answers: China will further expand reform and opening up and continue its macroeconomic policies, but in a prudent manner described as “active and steady.”
The CEWC is held at the end of each year to discuss issues in the domestic and international economies and map out plans for the following year. The meeting this year attracted more attention than usual because of the presence of the country’s new top leaders and a rebound in economic growth.
The CEWC concluded that the global economic situation would continue to be turbulent. The global economy is expected to maintain low growth, various forms of protectionism will resume and the pressure of potential inflation and asset bubbles will expand. The global economy has entered a period of profound transition from a period of fast growth in the pre-crisis years.
Expanding domestic demand, improving innovation and continuing the transformation of the country’s economic growth pattern will present new opportunities for China’s economy.
Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the State Council’s Development Research Center, said the new leaders are very confident about economic development in 2013 and believe the Chinese economy is likely to maintain steady growth.
Breakthroughs for reform
“Reform” was the main buzz word at this year’s CEWC. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), said at the conference that China should maintain a market economy and said that further reform needs “greater political courage and wisdom.”
Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that reforms are a major plus for China. Reforms, he said, would not only bring in fresh ideas but would ensure that vested interests would not dominate the economy. “This shows the resolution of the Central Committee of the Party,” said Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications. “The terms used throughout the conference, such as‘overall scheme,’ ‘roadmap’ and ‘timetable’for the reform, are inspiring and indicate that future reforms will not be confined to small matters, but are focused on major issues.”
The Chinese economy is facing immense difficulties in pursuing its economic reforms and readjusting its growth structure, Lian said. Reforms can only be implemented if there are changes to the country’s wealth distribution and financial system, if monopolies are broken up and if the household registration system, or hukou, is overhauled.
Such grand changes must come from the top, and leaders have already signaled their openness to expand reforms.
Upon his election as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Xi paid his first inspection tour to south China’s Guangdong Province, the bellwether of China’s reform and opening up over three decades ago. From December 7-11, he visited cities of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shunde and Guangzhou, where he dropped in on families, held seminars and deliberated upon a new round of economic reform needed for today’s China.
In Shenzhen, Xi also laid a basket of flowers at the statue of Deng Xiaoping, who ushered in a new wave of economic reforms and opening up that transformed China into an economic powerhouse.
Wang Yukai, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Governance, thought Xi’s tour in south China could also signal a new wave of reform as significant as that of Deng’s in 1992.
“Xi’s tour illustrates to the world that the country’s new leaders will follow down a path of reform and opening up initially put forward by Deng,” Wang said. Without Deng’s reforms, he added, China would not be where it is today.
Chen Yao, a researcher with the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), said previous reforms were analogous to “crossing the river by touching the stones.” This time around, Chen said, the CPC Central Committee is stressing foresighted reform planning.
A roadmap and timetable for a new round of reforms are expected to be released in March next year during the session of the National People’s Congress.
Steady advancement
The CEWC stressed the need to “actively and steadily” press ahead. Zhang said that the Chinese economy is experiencing two significant changes: a move from high-speed growth to stable growth; and from an expansion of scale to development based on quality and efficiency, adding that the government is taking an “active and steady” approach to ensure the changes continue.
“Steady” refers to stabilizing economic growth and price levels, while “active” refers to pushing forward economic restructuring and the pursuit of high-quality economic growth, said Zhang.
Since the fourth quarter of 2010, economic growth was in steady decline for seven consecutive quarters. Although growth appears to be rebounding, Zhang said the foundation for stronger growth remains weak.
The biggest problem in the Chinese economy is not the speed of growth but its quality and efficiency. If the problem of quality and efficiency cannot be fundamentally solved, the Chinese economy will be in a state of instability, says Yao Jingyuan, a researcher with the Counselors’ Office of the State Council, in an interview with Xinhua News Agency.
To ensure stable economic growth, the CEWC decided to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in 2013 to make counter-cyclical regulations and advance economic restructuring.
The policies will carry on from 2012 but with new conditions. Tax reform and structural tax reductions will be included in the country’s fiscal policy. Regarding monetary policy, the government will now focus on controlling the rate at which it prints money.
Liu Shangxi, Deputy Director of the Fiscal Science Research Center at the Ministry of Finance, said that although uncertainties in the global economy could hinder China’s growth, any impact wouldn’t be so great as in 2008-09. Therefore, in terms of fiscal policy, there is no need for China to formulate such expansionary measures.
A structural tax reduction will become a major component of China’s fiscal policy in 2013, said Liu. Currently, China is carrying out an experiment transforming the business tax to a valueadded tax, which could have a marked effect on reducing the tax burdens on companies. This is a significant step forward in improving the country’s tax system, said Liu. Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Institute of Economics at the CASS, predicted that in 2013 China will expand its financing scale and maintain its credit growth. Since 2011, the Chinese Government lowered the rate at which it issues its currency from 16 percent in 2010 to 14 percent in order to control inflation. In 2012, China’s growth of consumer price index was much lower than in the previous year, reaching 1.9 percent in October, the lowest in the past decade. Yuan said that as long as inflation remains under control, the government may raise its rate of currency issuance back to 16 percent in 2013. “This is a reasonable level,” he said. The Central Government is likely to adopt measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, Yuan added, but the key point of a prudent monetary policy is to control the speed of currency growth and enhance the flexibility of monetary policy. Since the United States, the EU and Japan are experiencing slow growth, China’s foreign trade has been encumbered. When fixed assets investments start to grow rapidly, the Chinese Government has pushed domestic demand as the major stimulus for economic growth.
The CEWC emphasized expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption so as to stimulate economic growth.
This conference also emphasized urbanization as a means to stimulate consumption growth. The country will gradually advance urbanization while ensuring that a population shift from rural to urban is done in an orderly fashion.
In 2011, China’s urban population accounted for 51.27 of the total. According to a report released by the CASS, China’s urbanization rate will surpass 60 percent by 2020. Every percentage point of urbanization growth equates to roughly 10 million rural residents moving from the countryside to the city and involves trillions of yuan in investment to stimulate domestic demand and increase consumption.
“By pressing urbanization ahead, the country can drive up both investment and consumption. Urbanization is key in promoting sustainable and steady economic growth in China,” Lian said.
Major Tasks for 2013
Improving macro-control and promoting sustainable and sound economic development
Ensuring a steady supply of farm produce
Accelerating the adjustment of the country’s industrial structure and improving its overall industrial quality
Pressing urbanization forward and focusing on improving its quality
Strengthening the social security system and improving people’s livelihood
Comprehensively deepening economic reforms and expanding opening up
(Source: Statement of the Central Economic Work Conference)