本文以1978-2007年间,农村居民人均纯收入与城镇居民人均可支配收入之比代表城乡居民收入差距,并通过建立ARMA(自回归移动平均)模型对其进行时序分析。分析结果表明,AR(1)模型能够提供较好的预测结果,因而可以用其进行预测,为相关部门提供参考数据,同时通过模型得出,我国城乡差距有进一步拉大的趋势。 In this paper, the income gap between urban and rural residents is represented as the ratio of the per capita net income of rural residents to the per capita disposable income of urban residents from 1978 to 2007, and the ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) model is used to analyze the time series. The analysis results show that the AR (1) model can provide better prediction results, so it can be used for forecasting and provide reference data for relevant departments. At the same time, the model shows that the gap between urban and rural areas in our country is further widened.