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历届美国政府都将“能源独立”作为政府孜孜以求的理想和目标。近年来,由于美国油气产量,尤其是页岩气等非常规油气产量的大幅增长,同时国际金融危机导致美国石油需求减缓甚至负增长,美国“能源独立”战略取得了显著进展。石油对外依存度出现拐点,并逐步摆脱了对中东地区石油的依赖,能源自给率逐渐提高,2011年达到81.4%。美国经济将因能源成本优势而加速复苏,贸易赤字大幅削减,并进一步吸引国际资本回流。北美正在成为世界能源供应版图中隆起的板块,将在一定程度上削弱中东地区能源的战略地位,并深刻影响地缘政治和全球经济格局。以中印为代表的发展中国家将成为全球,特别是中东能源消费的主力。未来围绕石油的核心矛盾将从OPEC与OECD之间的利益冲突,逐步转移到新兴经济体与OPEC之间的供需稳定问题上。全球能源格局调整将使我国能源发展和能源安全面临更为严峻的挑战。我国应加快推进和完善石油战略储备体系,积极推动“走出去”战略,强化全球能源供应能力建设,加大非常规能源勘探开发的科技投入,同时要大力发展清洁/替代能源,大幅提高能源利用效率。
All previous U.S. governments regard “energy independence” as the ideal and goal that the government diligently pursues. In recent years, the United States has made remarkable progress in its “energy independence” strategy due to the substantial increase in oil and gas production in the United States, especially unconventional oil and gas production, such as shale gas, while the international financial crisis has led to the slowdown or even negative growth of U.S. oil demand. There was an inflection point in the dependence on foreign oil and the oil gradually relied on the oil in the Middle East. The energy self-sufficiency rate gradually increased, reaching 81.4% in 2011. The U.S. economy will accelerate its recovery due to its energy cost advantage. The trade deficit will be drastically reduced and the return of international capital will be further stimulated. North America is emerging as a buoyant part of the world energy supply map, will to some extent weaken the strategic position of the Middle East energy and profoundly affect the geopolitical and global economic situation. Developing countries represented by China and India will become the main force of energy consumption in the world, especially in the Middle East. In the future, the core contradiction around oil will be gradually shifted from the conflict of interest between OPEC and OECD to the issue of supply and demand stability between emerging economies and OPEC. The adjustment of global energy pattern will make our country’s energy development and energy security face more severe challenges. China should speed up its strategic oil reserve system and actively push forward its “going global” strategy by strengthening its global energy supply capacity and increasing investment in science and technology for unconventional energy exploration and development. At the same time, it is necessary to vigorously develop clean / alternative energy sources and substantially increase Energy efficiency.