自从1970年我区小麦黄矮病大发生以来,麦蚜与黄矮病发生的关系、麦蚜本身对小麦造成的直接危害,已经引起人们的重视。近几年来麦蚜在局部地区的大发生,使小麦产量受到较严重的损失,已经越来越成为小麦生产上的一个重要问题。作者曾就麦蚜与黄矮病的关系作过两次中期预报(1980,1983),但在我区通过测蚜直接予报麦蚜发生量或发生趋势的予报方法,尚未见报导。作者根据多年从事测蚜工作所累积的资料(1973～1985年共13年,其中83～85年三年的资料由吴忠市农技推广中心黄石兰同志提供)用马尔柯夫链予报法对麦蚜的发生作趋势予报的尝试。予报的方法和步骤如下一、先列出历年测蚜的年份、年序和高峰期蚜量及分级值(见表1) Since the occurrence of wheat yellow dwarf virus in our district in 1970, the relationship between wheat aphid and yellow dwarf virus and the direct harm caused by wheat aphid itself have attracted people’s attention. In recent years, wheat aphid occurred in large areas in some areas, the wheat yield suffered more serious losses, has become an increasingly important issue in wheat production. The author has made two medium-term forecasts on the relationship between wheat aphids and yellow dwarf (1980, 1983). However, no report has been reported on how to report the occurrence or the occurrence of wheat aphids directly by measuring aphids in our region. Based on the data accumulated over many years engaged in measuring aphids (from 1973 to 1985, a total of 13 years, of which 83 to 85 years of three years of information provided by Wuzhong Agricultural Extension Center Huang Shilan provide) The trend of trying to report the occurrence of the attempt. To report the method and steps are as follows, first listed in the calendar year measured aphids, annual and peak aphids and grading value (see Table 1)