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分析天津空港经济区供暖、蒸汽用户资料发现,不同用户的单位面积耗热量差异较大,建议根据用户性质确定相应的耗热量,逐步改装热量表计量取费,以较为准确地统计现有负荷。预测了空港经济区近期总冷负荷为229.75 MW,总电负荷为61 998 MW.h,规划热负荷到2012年为422.5 t/h。由复合泊松过程理论计算能源需求的期望和方差,则能源需求的随机发展近似呈正态分布函数。比较该随机预测结果与统计预测、规划预测结果可知,区域能源需求统计预测和规划预测均能够满足在不同的时间最可能出现的负荷要求。
Analysis of Tianjin Airport Economic Zone heating, steam users found that different users per unit area of large differences in calorific power, it is recommended to determine the corresponding heat consumption according to the nature of users, and gradually modify the heat meter measurement fees to more accurately calculate the existing load. The recent total cooling load of the airport economy zone is estimated to be 229.75 MW with a total electrical load of 61 998 MW.h and a planned thermal load of 422.5 t / h by 2012. Computation of the expected and variance of energy demand by the theory of compound Poisson process, then the stochastic development of energy demand is approximately normal distribution function. Comparing this random prediction result with the statistical prediction, we can see from the planning and forecasting results that both the statistical prediction of regional energy demand and the forecast of planning can meet the load requirements that are most likely to occur at different times.