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欧盟各国前几年从经济衰退中先后复苏,接着维持2—3％的年增长率。可是从1995年下半年起又明显出现了不同程度的不景气现象,特别表现在财政金融和社会动荡方面。西方经济学家有的预言欧洲即将陷入新的衰退;有的则认为目前的困难是暂时的,不久就会克服,然后将以较快的速度继续发展。展望一个国家或一个经济集团,甚至整个世界经济发展的前景是很不容易的事,要做出中长期的预测,更是困难。但是就欧盟来说,如能对其面临的一些重大问题进行实事求是的分析和估计,也许会有助于展望其中长期发展的前景。
A few years ago the EU countries recovered from the economic downturn one after the other, then maintained an annual growth rate of 2-3%. However, there have been marked signs of recession in different degrees since the second half of 1995, especially in terms of financial and social turmoil. Some Western economists have predicted that Europe will soon fall into a new recession; others think the current difficulties are temporary and will soon be overcome, and then the economy will continue to develop rapidly. Looking forward to the prospect of economic development in a country or an economic group or even the entire world, it is not easy for us to make any forecast. It is even more difficult to make long-term and medium-term forecasts. However, as far as the EU is concerned, analyzing and assessing some of the major problems it faces may help to look forward to the long-term development prospects.