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2012年2月沪胶市场继续维持偏多的格局,震荡幅度明显增大,略呈N形走势。沪胶指数最终报收29402元,月度涨幅为6.25%。市场影响因素为:国内流动性略微宽松及欧洲债务危机略显缓和带来的宏观面维持利多,泰国收储及东南亚进入低产季节性因素缓解供应压力,云南干旱天气对多头形成支撑力,不过国际原油价格回落加大了合成橡胶市场的压力,从而间接拖累天然橡胶市场走势。3月天然橡胶市场依旧呈现多空交织的局面,不过从整体来看多方力量仍略占优势,如果泰国收储不出现大的变故,预计沪胶市场继续维持高位宽幅震荡并略微偏多的概率较大,沪胶指数下方28000元可能成为新的强支撑位,3月上旬有望突破30000元整数关口,但上方31000～31500元区间的阻力较大。
February 2012 Hujiao market continued to maintain a pattern of excessive volatility increased significantly, a slight N-shaped trend. Hujiao Index eventually closed at 29,402 yuan, a monthly increase of 6.25%. Market factors: the slight easing of domestic liquidity and easing of the debt crisis in Europe brought some macro-conditions to maintain the profit margin. The easing of purchasing and storage in Thailand and low-yielding seasonal factors in Southeast Asia eased supply pressure. Yunnan’s dry weather formed support for bulls. However, Crude oil prices increased pressure on the synthetic rubber market, which indirectly drag on the natural rubber market trends. March natural rubber market is still showing long and short interwoven situation, but overall the multi-force is still slightly dominant, if the Thai storage does not appear a major accident, the expected Hujiao market continues to maintain high volatility and slightly higher Probability, Hujiao index below 28,000 yuan may become a new strong support in early March is expected to exceed 30,000 yuan integer mark, but the top 31000 ~ 31,500 yuan range resistance.