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利用2003~2014年山东省17个地级市制造业27个部门的面板数据,研究了山东省制造业的时空分异特征,并基于空间杜宾模型(SDM)探讨了主要的影响因素,结果发现:山东省制造业份额呈现出自东向西递减、先东部集聚后向中西部扩散的规律。以2007年为转折点,制造业呈现东部沿海转出、内陆转入的特点,鲁北地区成为份额增长最快的区域。由于空间溢出效应的存在,市场规模、交通基础设施、产业规模和人力资本水平均有助于提升本地区制造业份额。因此,应该从地区关联的角度重新审视制造业发展规律并制定相应政策措施。
Using the panel data of 27 departments in manufacturing industry in 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2014, this paper studied the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of manufacturing industry in Shandong province and discussed the main influencing factors based on the spatial Dubbin model (SDM). The results It is found that the share of manufacturing industry in Shandong province shows a decreasing trend from east to west, and the first part of the eastern part of the country has spread to the central and western regions after its gathering. Taking 2007 as a turning point, the manufacturing industry has been characterized by the transfer of the eastern coastal areas and inland areas. The Lubei area has become the region with the highest share of growth. Owing to the spillover effect, the market size, transportation infrastructure, industrial scale and human capital level all contribute to enhancing the manufacturing sector in the region. Therefore, we should re-examine the law of the development of manufacturing industry and formulate the corresponding policy measures from the perspective of regional affiliation.