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文化贸易出口持续期与文化贸易出口二元边际存在何种影响效应?文章基于1996~2013年中国文化贸易HS六位码产品数据,构建文化贸易出口的二元边际和贸易持续期变量,通过实证分析发现:中国的文化产品出口增长主要沿着集约边际实现,扩展边际增长趋势并不显著;贸易出口持续期对出口的集约边际呈现正向促进效应,而与出口的扩展边际存在显著的负相关关系,同时在不同的核心产品类型和持续期样本中,二者影响差异仍然显著存在。此外,文化产品的进口规模、出口目的国文化差异与经济发展水平等均对出口二元边际具有显著的影响。文章多种稳健性回归估计也验证了上述结论。基于此,如何有效提升中国文化贸易的出口持续期,进而发挥其对文化出口增长的促进效应,这对于文化贸易的持续发展和国际竞争力提升具有重要的现实意义和价值。
What are the effects of the duration of export of cultural trade and the duality of export of cultural trade? Based on the data of the six-digit product of HS Cultural Trade in China from 1996 to 2013, we construct the binary marginal and trade- The analysis shows that the growth of export of cultural products in China mainly comes from the intensive marginalization, and the trend of expanding the marginal growth is insignificant. The duration of export of exports shows a positive promotion effect on the export intensive marginalization but a significant negative correlation with the expansion of export Relationship, while in different core product types and duration samples, the difference between the two effects is still significant. In addition, the import scale of cultural products, the cultural differences in the destination countries of export and the level of economic development all have a significant impact on the dual border of exports. The article also validates the above conclusions by various robust regression estimates. Based on this, how to effectively enhance the export duration of China’s cultural trade and then its promotional effect on the growth of cultural exports is of great practical significance and value to the sustainable development of cultural trade and the enhancement of international competitiveness.