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2013年全球原铝严重过剩和需求相对低迷始终压制着铝价。我们预计2014年全球原铝消费增长略好于2013年,但供应过剩仍严重,因为过去几年持续过剩所累积的库存有增无减。2014年铝价低迷可能导致减产限产行为增多,全年过剩量将下降。预计2013年全球原铝产量同比增长约4.6%我们预计2013年全球原铝产量将增长4.6%至4830万吨,其中中国原铝产量同比增长10.4%。由于全球需求增长减缓,铝价自2013年初以来已累计下滑超过了
The global aluminum surplus in 2013 and the relative sluggish demand have always suppressed the aluminum price. We expect global primary aluminum consumption to grow slightly better in 2014 than in 2013, but the oversupply is still serious as the inventories accumulated over the past few years of overcapacity continue unabated. The downturn in aluminum prices in 2014 may lead to an increase in production cut-limit and overcapacity in the year. Global primary aluminum production is expected to grow by 4.6% YoY in 2013 We expect global primary aluminum production to increase by 4.6% to 48.3mt in 2013, of which China’s primary aluminum production increased 10.4% YoY. Aluminum prices have fallen more than they have been since the beginning of 2013 due to the slowdown in global demand growth