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在全球外部失衡的背景下,本文试图发现人均收入究竟是如何影响贸易平衡的。本文利用2005-2013年的面板数据,对世界138个国家进行整体和分组回归,运用动态面板广义矩估计方法考察人均收入对贸易平衡的作用,并利用静态面板固定效应和混合估计、引入OPEC石油输出国虚拟变量等方法进行了稳健性检验。结果发现在考察期间,人均收入对一国贸易平衡具有显著的解释能力,人均收入(横轴)和贸易平衡(纵轴)呈现倒U型曲线。这一结论既不同于传统的国际收支阶段假说,也有异于“居民收入增加——扩大消费——贸易余额减少”的较流行观点。本文认为,倒U型曲线的原因与一国经济发展进程中的社会保障完善程度、剩余劳动力充裕状况等因素有关。重视内部原因、认清现实差异是缓解外部失衡的有效出路。
In the context of global external imbalances, this article attempts to find out how per capita incomes affect the trade balance. Using the panel data from 2005 to 2013, this paper returns the global and group returns to 138 countries in the world. The dynamic panel GMM method is used to examine the effect of per capita income on the trade balance. With static panel fixed effects and mixed estimates, OPEC Petroleum Exporting countries and other methods of dummy variables were tested robustness. The results showed that per capita income had significant explanatory power to the trade balance of a country during the study period, and inverted U-shaped curve appeared on the per capita income (horizontal axis) and trade balance (vertical axis). This conclusion is different from the traditional hypothesis of the balance of payments stage, but also differs from the more popular view that “the increase of resident income - expansion of consumption - the reduction of trade balance”. This paper argues that the reason for the U-shaped curve is related to factors such as the perfection of social security and the abundant surplus labor in a country’s economic development. Pay attention to the internal causes and understand the actual differences is an effective way to ease the external imbalance.