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港口吞吐量预测常用的方法有:时间序列预测法、回归分析预测法、灰色 预 测法和弹性系数法等。每种预测方法都有其特点和适用范围,通过分析舟山港口吞吐量的 特点,选择采用分货种预测法比较适合舟山实际,而其中舟山港口的其它货物吞吐量(指除 去石油、煤炭、矿石等大宗货物后的货物吞吐量。下同。),根据其特殊性,则采用弹性 预 测法。
Port throughput forecasting commonly used methods are: time series forecasting method, regression analysis forecasting method, gray forecasting method and elasticity coefficient method. Each forecasting method has its own characteristics and applicable scope. By analyzing the characteristics of the throughput of Zhoushan Port, the method of sub-species forecasting is adopted to compare with the actual situation of Zhoushan, and the throughput of other cargoes in Zhoushan Port (referring to the removal of oil, coal, ore Such as bulk cargo cargo throughput. The same below.), According to its particularity, the use of elastic forecasting method.