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地质灾害发生频数的有效预测有着重要价值。基于灰色理论,将GM(1,1)或修正GM(1,1)模型与灰色状态Markov链模型结合起来,建立地质灾害发生频数预测模型。用2005—2009年我国季度和年发生地质灾害频数进行实例分析,并进行了预测。结果表明:预测结果具有一定参考价值,模型预测是有效的,特别是短期预测效果较好,该方法为地质灾害预测提供了一种方法。
Effective prediction of the frequency of geological disasters is of great value. Based on the gray theory, GM (1,1) or modified GM (1,1) model and gray state Markov chain model are combined to establish the prediction model of geological disasters occurrence frequency. A case study was made on the frequency of geological disasters occurring in China during the quarter of 2005-2009 and the forecast was made. The results show that the prediction results have some reference value and the model prediction is effective, especially the short-term prediction is better. This method provides a method for the prediction of geological disasters.