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本文基于边坡变形破坏的特点，对位移观测数据进行统计分析，利用非平稳时间序列理论就位移观测值建立模型进而作出预报。通过实例验证，该理论方法在边坡变形破坏时间预报中是有效可行的。
Based on the characteristics of slope deformation and failure, the dissertation makes a statistical analysis of the displacement observation data, and uses the non-stationary time series theory to establish the model and then forecasts the displacement observation data. Through the example verification, the theoretical method is effective and feasible in the prediction of slope deformation and failure time.