论文部分内容阅读
2014年年底外汇市场的波澜起伏,预示着2015年注定是个“多事之秋”。2014年12月中旬的美联储会议记录暗示,2015年春夏之交即将开启第一次加息。这意味着即将进入加息周期的美元将继续保持相对强势。而欧洲和日本因深陷经济衰退泥潭,目前仍处于继续加大量化宽松阶段,其货币难有更佳表现;新兴市场国家货币也将因受到美元资本流出的冲击,会倍感压力。2014年下半年因货币政策分化带来的国际各主要货币走势的分化,预计在2015年仍将持续。
The ups and downs of the foreign exchange market at the end of 2014 indicate that 2015 is bound to be a “golden autumn”. The minutes of the Fed meeting in mid-December 2014 suggest that the first rate hike is about to start at the turn of the spring-summer 2015. This means that the dollar is about to enter the rate hike cycle will continue to be relatively strong. While Europe and Japan are in a quagmire of economic recession, they are still at a stage of quantitative easing. There is hardly any better performance in their currencies. Emerging market currencies will also feel pressured by the impact of dollar capital outflows. In the second half of 2014, the divergence of major international currencies caused by the divergence of monetary policies is expected to continue in 2015.