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CPI重回“1”时代,货币政策放松的呼声甚高。然而诸多经济数据表明,宽松货币政策的时机尚未成熟。本文通过对若干经济代表性数据的分析,得出CPI增幅下降的本质原因,认为目前物价水平并未真正回归低位,且银行体系流动性尚充足。若此时放松货币政策难以达到预期效果,并将助推CPI新一波上涨,与“稳增长”政策略有偏离。最后本文就目前我国所处经济形势,提出下一步货币政策的相关措施建议。
CPI back “1 ” era, the voice of monetary policy to relax very high. However, many economic data show that the time is not yet ripe for easing monetary policy. Based on the analysis of a number of economic representative data, this paper draws the essence of the declining CPI growth rate, and concludes that the current price level has not really returned to the low level, and the liquidity of the banking system is still sufficient. At this moment, it is difficult to achieve the desired result in easing monetary policy and will boost the new wave of CPI and deviate slightly from the policy of “steady growth”. In the end, this article puts forward some suggestions on the next monetary policy based on the current economic situation in our country.