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近年来中国住房开发投资的增速明显放缓,其成因和未来发展趋势受到普遍关注。该文以国际文献中大量采用的住房开发投资占总产出比重(the share of housing investment as a percentage of total output,SHTO)为载体,首先基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型和中国287个城市在2002—2012年间数据,从理论和实证2个方面证明中国同样存在着SHTO指标随经济发展先上升后下降的所谓“SHTO规律”。其次,从土地与资本这2项城市住房产业发展的核心投入要素出发,通过理论和实证分析证明SHTO值由上升段转入下降段的拐点位置取决于土地和资本2种资源的相对稀缺程度及替代关系。测算结果表明:中国多数城市正在或者即将经历SHTO值从上升段向下降段的转变,住房开发投资增幅乃至绝对规模的下降是不可避免的趋势,中国房地产业发展模式的转型势在必行。
In recent years, the growth rate of investment in housing development in China has obviously slowed down. Its causes and future development trends have drawn widespread attention. This paper takes the share of housing investment as a percentage of total output (SHTO) widely used in international literature as a carrier. Based on Cobb-Douglas production function model and 287 cities in China in 2002 - 2012 data, from both theoretical and empirical evidence that China also has the so-called “SHTO law” that the SHTO indicator goes up and then down with economic development. Secondly, starting from the key input elements of the development of housing industry in the two cities, land and capital, theoretical and empirical analysis shows that the turning point where the SHTO value changes from rising segment to decreasing segment depends on the relative scarcity of two resources of land and capital and Alternative relationship. The results show that most cities in China are or will soon experience the shift of the SHTO value from the rising segment to the falling segment, and the growth of investment in housing development and even the absolute decline of the scale are inevitable. The transformation of China’s real estate development model is imperative.