基于现场调查,并结合震害方面的经验,对滁州城区量大面广的老旧房屋的特点、抗震薄弱环节进行了评述;运用易损性概率分析法对所调查的老旧房屋进行了震害预测;进一步搜集了大量震害资料,总结了类似房屋的震害矩阵,对震害预测结果进行了对比检验。所得结果可供同类城市震害预测借鉴参考。 Based on the field investigation and the experience of earthquake damage, the characteristics of the old houses and the anti-seismic weaknesses in Chuzhou urban area are reviewed. The vulnerability of the old houses under investigation is analyzed by using the vulnerability probability analysis method Further more, a great deal of earthquake damage data were collected, and the seismic damage matrix of similar houses was summarized, and the result of earthquake damage prediction was contrasted. The results can be used for reference for earthquake prediction in similar cities.