论文部分内容阅读
实现2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值不仅是中国在全球气候谈判中做出的国际承诺,也是中国实现经济结构转型的必然选择,而对二氧化碳排放峰值进行合理的区域分解是中国实现二氧化碳排放达峰的必要前提.本文首先对中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值进行初始的省区分解,利用DEA-BCC模型对初始省区分解方案进行效率评估,在此基础上利用零和收益DEA模型得到全部省区达到有效的中国二氧化碳排放峰值省区分解方案.本文研究表明:(1)大部分省区初始分解方案的效率值较低,只有2个省区的效率值达到DEA有效,且二氧化碳排放配额比重较大省区的分配效率值较小;(2)经过零和收益DEA模型的优化,省区分解方案的整体效率最终提升至有效边界,二氧化碳排放配额由效率较低的欠发达地区向效率较高的较发达地区转移,较发达和不发达的两类地区均分配到了较少的二氧化碳排放配额,最终二氧化碳排放权占比较多的地区主要为二氧化碳排放严重但减排潜力较大的省区.文章最后根据本文研究结论提出了具体的碳排放省区分解政策建议.
Achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 is not only an international commitment made by China in the global climate negotiations but also an inevitable choice for China to achieve economic structural transformation. A reasonable regional decomposition of the peak carbon dioxide emissions is necessary for China to reach its peak of carbon dioxide emissions Premise.This paper first initial decomposition of the peak of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2030, the use of DEA-BCC model of initial provincial decomposition efficiency evaluation program, based on this use of zero and yield DEA model to achieve effective in all provinces and autonomous regions (1) The efficiency of the initial decomposition scheme in most provinces is relatively low, only the efficiency of two provinces and autonomous regions reaches DEA effective, and the proportion of carbon dioxide emission quota is larger in the provinces and autonomous regions (2) Through the optimization of the DEA model with zero-sum return, the overall efficiency of the provincial-level resolution scheme eventually increases to the effective boundary, and the quota of carbon dioxide emission from less-developed areas with lower efficiency to more-developed ones with higher efficiency Regional transfer, more developed and underdeveloped two types of regions are allocated less carbon dioxide row Quota, the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions ultimately more areas are mainly carbon dioxide emission reduction potential for serious but the provinces. The article concludes with specific carbon emissions provinces decomposition policy recommendations based on this paper concluded.