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短时强降雨和外江潮水位顶托是诱发城市内涝的两个重要因素,分析雨潮风险对于减少内涝灾害,确保居民人身财产安全具有重要意义。重现期与设计值的定义和计算是风险分析中的重难点,通过构造年最大1h降雨量与相应潮位的联合分布,介绍了Kendall重现期的定义和计算方法,指出了Kendall重现期与传统重现期在危险区域识别上的差异性,并通过实例分析,验证了Kendall重现期法的合理性。研究结论可为城市内涝防治提供依据。
Short-term heavy rains and top water level support of the outer river are two important factors that induce urban waterlogging. It is of great significance to analyze the risk of rains to reduce the waterlogging disaster and ensure the personal and property safety of residents. The definition and calculation of recurrence and design value are the most difficult and difficult points in risk analysis. By means of the joint distribution of maximum 1-year rainfall and corresponding tide level, the definition and calculation method of Kendall recurrence period are introduced. The Kendall recurrence period And the traditional recurrence of the danger zone identification differences, and through case studies, verify the reasonableness of the Kendall recurrence method. The conclusion of the study can provide the basis for the prevention and control of waterlogging in the city.