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停输后再启动失败(业内俗称凝管)是含蜡原油管道运行的主要风险。本研究将基于可靠性的极限状态方法引入含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性评价,建立了基于管道停输及再启动过程非稳态传热与非稳态流动的再启动失效数学模型,发展了高效、稳健的随机数值模拟算法,提出了停输再启动目标安全水平的建议,实现了含蜡原油管道停输再启动安全性的定量评价。该方法的用途包括确定停输不同时间后管道再启动失败的概率,根据目标安全水平确定管道的允许停输时间,以及一定允许停输时间条件下的最低安全进站温度。与根据经验确定输油温度和允许停输时间的传统做法相比,本研究为含蜡原油管道的安全、经济运行提供了新的理论和方法支持。
Failure to start and stop after the shutdown (the industry commonly known as coagulation) is the main risk of waxy crude oil pipeline operation. In this study, based on the limit state method of reliability, the safety evaluation of shutdown and start-up of waxy crude oil pipeline was introduced, and a mathematical model of restarting failure based on unsteady heat transfer and unsteady flow during pipeline shutdown and restarting was established. An efficient and robust algorithm for stochastic numerical simulation was developed and a suggestion was put forward to stop and restart the target safety level. The quantitative evaluation of the safety of shutdown and start-up of waxy crude oil pipeline was realized. The purpose of this method is to determine the probability of a failed pipe restart after a different period of shut down, to determine the allowable shut down time of the pipeline based on the target safety level, and the minimum safe stop temperature for a certain shut down time. Compared with the traditional method of experimentally determining the oil temperature and the allowable shut-down time, this study provides new theoretical and methodological support for the safe and economical operation of waxy crude oil pipeline.